In this article the long-term weather forecast developed by a technique of Institute of hydraulic engineering and land improvement of UAAN is given. Also forecasting of the main characteristics of weather – monthly average air temperature and an amount of precipitation for a month is given.
In "Agroresursa’s" scientific center of Institute of hydraulic engineering and land improvement of UAAN the technique of long-term forecasting of the main characteristics of weather – monthly average air temperature and an amount of precipitation for a month is processed. At the heart of this technique – the analysis of dynamic ranks of year fluctuations of meteorological indicators in a cut of administrative areas and points of dispersal of hydrometeorological stations. Calculations of predicted meteorological indicators are carried out with application of methods of mathematical statistics and computer technologies.
The analysis of long-term supervision over air temperature and precipitation in a retrospective during 1881-2005 gives the grounds with probability of 75-80 % to expect in the first half of the year 2006 considerable positive thermal anomaly (a deviation of the actual value from climatic norm) during the winter and spring periods.
In January of a deviation of monthly average temperature from climatic norm will make 2,4-2,8°C. For the last 60 years such thermal anomaly this month repeated 14 times. In February anomaly it is possible to expect in limits 1,2-2,5°C. More warmly than the usual March is predicted also. Positive deviations of monthly average temperature from climatic norm will fluctuate in the territory of the country in limits 1,5-2,4°C. Thereof spring processes will begin for 12-16 days before usual terms. Continuous transition daily average distemper rounds through 5°S which coincides from the beginning of vegetation of field cultures, will be carried out at the end of the second decade of March in the southern areas and within the third decade – in other territory which advances usual terms for 7-10 days.
Moderately warm it is possible to expect April. Positive anomaly – in limits 0,7-1,2°C. The expected thermal mode will assist development and growth of thermophilic plants and active vegetation of other field cultures. Close to the moderately warm the temperature mode in May and June is predicted. The monthly average temperature will deviate climatic norm on 0,2-0,8°C the last month of spring and 0,2-0,5°C the first month of summer.
With surplus of atmospheric moisture January and February and with its essential shortage – are predicted April. In other months a hydrothermal mode it is possible to expect close to the usual.
The quantity of an atmospheric precipitation for 10-20 % will exceed average long-term values almost in all territory of the country in January and February. And in areas of a steppe and polessky zone – in March. The notable shortage of a precipitation is supposed in April when their sum in a month will make 80-90 % of climatic norm. On the same amount of precipitation we will hope in a steppe zone in May both in forest-steppe and for Polesye in June. As a result – in these territories the considerable areas of agricultural holdings can fall under a soil drought.
Positive anomaly of temperature expected on a forecast in winter months will be accompanied by long thaw at which in the afternoon snow thaws and the ice crust on a soil surface is formed. If it remains long time, it leads to damage of plants of wintering cultures. Deficiency of a precipitation at the end of spring and at the beginning of summer predetermines the droughty phenomena: dry winds, dusty storms and droughts. Therefore agrotechnical actions of closing and preservation of soil moisture will be actual. On a case of a soil drought in advance it is necessary to prepare irrigation equipment and to carry out watering of lands according to the calculated norms of watering.
Long-term forecast of monthly average air temperature (0S)
on the first half of the year 2006.
Long-term forecast of an amount of precipitation (mm) for the first half of the year 2006.
V. PROSUNKO.
(On newspaper materials S_lsky hour).