In article it is noted that in the different countries of the world the solution of the problem of food security will be interfaced to different difficulties. It will demand from the world community of association of the purposes and means.
The diet differs at sectors of society different in a level of living and in the different countries, nevertheless the food it is considered to be the main indicator of security of the population amount of grain on one eater
The diet differs at sectors of society different in a level of living and in the different countries, nevertheless a prodoyovolstviye it is considered to be the main indicator of security of the population amount of grain on one eater. Now the world is provided with grain. However in view of proceeding growth of a nayorodonaseleniye, exhaustion potenciala lands which can be mastered in an arable land, and a zamedleyoniya of growth rate of a grain yield which was outlined in the 1990th years (in 1990 an annual gain sostavlyal 2,1 %, in 1997 – only 1,1 %), the situation in the world worsens. In 1990 on one inhabitant of Earth 335 kg of grain were made, and in 1998 – on 23 kg it is less.
Productivity grain, as well as any other selskoyokhozyaystvenny cultures, otrazhaet usefulness of klimatichesyoky conditions (amount of moisture and heat) and a level of development of a selyyosky economy (amount of fertilizers, norms of watering, a kacheyostvo of a sowed material, etc.). For this reason in the different countries it differs. So, productivity of wheat in Great Britain and Kazakhstan differs in 11 times: 77 and 7 c/hectares. The main proizvodiyotel of grain – the USA, Canada and Australia – receive low crops respectively 27, 23 and 20 c/hectares (Russia – 14 c/hectares). Osoyobykh isn’t present hopes of their growth: introduction of additional udobyoreniye rises the price for grain and besides destroys soils.
Possibilities of a uveyolicheniye of the area of an arable land are settled. Naprotiv, it gradually decreases, as there is a destruction of arable soils by an erosion, and them prixoditsya to deduce from selskoyokhozyaystvenny use.
Till 1996 it was possible to increase a share of an irrigated arable land. In 30 years it increased almost in 2 times, priyochy such countries as China and Inyody, cultivate grain preiyomushchestvenno on irrigated zemlyax. However exhaustion of water-supplies will lead soon to inevitable reduction ploshhadi irrigation lands, what not zamedlit to affect the general collecting grain. Strengthens ground deficiency the competition of a rural hozyayyostvo and the industry. So, under the influence of industrialization honor in 2 times the arable land area in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan was reduced. In a word, where throw – everywhere a wedge. On uveliyocheny productions of grain no hopes are present.
However an average picture of production of grain in the world not otrazhaet a real condition of an obesyopecheniye the food a naseleyoniya of the different countries. While in the USA, Canada and Russia today on one inhabitant 700 – 900 kg of grain a year are made, in the poor countries (for example, Kenya, Tanzayoniya or Haiti) is made meyony 150 kg. For this reason their nayoseleniye starves and needs continuous food aid. Total number golodayuyoshchy in the world makes 0,5 billion chelovek and at hunger border naxoditsya about 1 billion more people. Boyoley per day (the meditsinyosky norm) receives of 2500 kcal only the kazhyody third inhabitant of a planet. The Znayochitelny part of the population not poluchaet animal protein also has obviously defective food.
Important component pishhevogo a diet – animal protein. Production of meat by the end a stoleyotiya increased more than in 4 times, and the gain of production went generally at the expense of pork and myasa birds, otkorm which energeticheski it is more favorable. To 1/4 potrebyonost of the population of a planet in zhivotyony protein it is satisfied at the expense of fish, in recent years production moreproduktov on sea farms and prudovy fish quickly grows.
Srednemirova an indicator of poyodushny consumption of meat sostavlyaet 32 kg a year that is quite good. Odyonako behind this figure latent an ostyory inequality: meat is osyonovy a diet only for gold billion the population of developed countries. The inhabitant of vegetarian India receives on the average 1 egg in two weeks, and the ameyorikanets eats 174 eggs in a year.
Technocrats scientists consider that on Earth there can live not less than 30 billion people (A great fantayozer K.E.Tsiolkovsky wrote that at high development nauki on Earth there can live 1,5 trillion people!). Radical ecologists-konservatsionisty, rukovodstvuyushhiesya the motto Back in prirodu!, consider that 0,5-1,5 billion shouldn’t exceed narodonaseleyony planets. Only in this case it is possible to keep natural circulation of carbon, which opredelyaet stability of the biosphere. Both extreme options nerealistichny. Ideas of ustoychiyovy development start with final number of the population of a planet in 8 – 12 billion. However chtoby to stabilize a narodonaseyoleniye on this the red line, management of demograyofichesky process is necessary.
Chinese, especially inyodiyskiya versions of the solution of a deyomografichesky problem by the world community be apprehended can’t. Ekologi demograyofy rest hopes of tsiviliyozovanny methods: the size of a family a natural way decreases at increase of a level of living and erudition of the population, first of all women. Important and their inclusion in public life. It successes of demographic policy of a number of the countries of Latin America speak. The Bolyyoshy role in regulation of growth of the population is played by degree of availability of contraceptives, to this sphere should be sent ecological pomoshh the rich countries poor. Fakyotor reducing speed rosta of the population, the uryobanizatsiya as city families always it is less, than selyyosky is.
All told not rasprostranyaetsya or it even decreases by developed countries where the "zero" gain a naseleyoniya takes place – as in the countries of Europe, especially in Italy and in Russia. In this case the system of measures for management of demoyografichesky process has an obyoratny orientation: razrabatyvayutsya the economic and sotsiyoalny measures promoting increase of birth rate (a privilege and a grant for having many children mateyory, creation of favorable soyotsialny climate for the families having children, etc.).
The system of reliable providing with the food is called as proyodovolstvenny safety which includes not only an obesyopecheniye food nyne living generation, but also a soyokhraneniye of the same possibility for generations of the descendants which number will make 8 – 10 billion.
Real put decisions problemy – ecologically usyotoychivy rural hozyayyostvo at the maximum isyopolzovaniye and preservation of agroresource potential. At compromise option of a selsyoky economy in low doses mineral udobyoreniye and pesticides are used.
Ecologists are sure that at a stayobilizatsiya of number of a narodoyonaseleniye to avoid hunger mozhyono. However for this purpose the cheyolovechestvo will need to pass from squandering policy to politike deficiency. For this purpose it is necessary:
to stop production goryuyochy and plastics from grain and other products of a rasteniyevodyostvo which can be ispolzovany in food;
sharply to reduce quantity kormov from an arable land, first of all grains, to avoid losses of Piyoshchevy energy at an ispolzovayoniya of animals as a posredyonik between a plant and cheloveyoky. Certainly, some koliyochestvo of a forage from an arable land will be used after all, but only at the expense of not food a plant (first of all long-term herbs) which join in sevooborot for maintenance a soil plodoyorodiya;
to involve in quality of a forage of agricultural animals all unrealized potential of a vegetative waste – rice and wheaten straw, and also corn stalks for a forage of cows, sheep and goats. In India it is wide ispolzuyutsya the vegetative remains for cultivation of buffalo s which play important role in the natsionalyyony dairy industry. Milk became the main selskokhoyozyaystvenny product of India, the country came out on top on production of this product and outstripped even the USA;
to replace a considerable part of animal protein in food racione the population with vegetable protein of the bean. The area arable zemel, sowed main A rastiyotelny cow – a soya, for poyosledny 10 years already increased more than in 4 times. In a framework programmy ensuring prodovolyyostvenny safety this process will proceed. Zhivotyony protein should be made only on those lands where nevozyomozhno arable land creation and consequently is inevitable mediation zhivotyony between plants of estestvenyony ecosystems and the person;
to exclude prodovolyyostviye losses at storage and a transportiyorovka.
In summary we will note that in different regions of the world the solution of the problem of a food beyozopasnost will be interfaced to razyony difficulties. China in which while the food bezopasyonost is provided generally at the expense of internal resources will be the critical region. Seyogodnya Kitay provides itself zeryony at the expense of the maximum ispolyyozovaniye agroresource potenciala: sklonovy lands are developed in an arable land, high doses of miyoneralny fertilizers (to 400 kg/hectares of active ingredient that in 4 raza more than are brought in the USA and in 20 times more, than in Russia), the most part of fields is irrigated that in tepyoly climate allows to receive 2 – 3 crops in a year. As a result Chinese receive a grain yield of 38 c/hectares – on 11 c/hectares more than in the USA. Odyonako high doses of fertilizers and watering destroy soils. Except togo, water resources for watering are settled: level of ground waters in northern agricultural rajonax the countries fell to 80 m, in a provinyotsiya Shanghai doesn’t suffice some water even for drink. The arable land area in China decreases under the impact of an industyorializatsiya and a civilization. Seyyochas is the share of one Chinese of 0,06 hectares of an arable land, and this pokazayotel will decrease and further. China can support the milliard population only at a mode of the most strict economy and the help of the world community (at the expense of a grain import).
In the conditions of decrease in collecting grain, rigid economy of water, a competition aggravation between exporters of grain and postoyannogo increases in its cost it is necessary to live and another stranam – to India, Iran, Pakistan, Mexico, etc.
The solution of the problem of prodovolyyostvenny safety will demand from the world community of an objediyoneniye of efforts and means.
B. Mirkin, L.Naumov.
(On materials of the Ecology magazine and life).